The SAWS warns exceptionally strong 2026/2027 El Niño could bring severe heatwaves to SA

South Africa could face an exceptionally hot and dry summer as a very strong El Niño event develops in the Pacific Ocean, with the South African Weather Service (SAWS) warning that the event could become the strongest El Niño in living memory.

The SAWS said the latest weekly sea-surface temperature anomalies in the eastern-central tropical Pacific were above the threshold used to define a very strong El Niño.

Forecasts indicate that the anomaly could exceed 3°C this spring. A strong El Niño is defined as sea-surface temperatures at least 1.5°C above normal, while a very strong event exceeds 2°C.

Most El Niño events are associated with below-normal rainfall and above-normal temperatures across southern Africa and the latest SAWS seasonal forecast points towards a continuation of the pattern.

For October to December 2026, below-normal rainfall is the most likely outcome over most of South Africa, while above-normal temperatures are forecast across much of the country.

The SAWS said the November 2026 to January 2027 outlook was similar, with drier and warmer conditions expected over most of the country.

The weather service warned that the combination of an exceptionally strong El Niño and continued global warming could have particularly severe consequences.

“If the 2026/27 El Niño event brings the expected below-normal rainfall to southern Africa, it is likely that a high frequency of heatwaves will co-occur,” the SAWS said. “These heatwaves have the potential to be severe.”

The weather service also warned of possible water scarcity and said the event would be closely monitored and communicated to disaster management structures, weather-sensitive industries, the media and the public.

The warning comes as the region has continued to warm since the last major very strong El Niño in 2015/16, which was associated with unprecedented heatwaves across southern Africa.

The SAWS said the combination of the expected El Niño and global warming would probably result in 2027 becoming the warmest year yet recorded.

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